markets

Black Bear Market Brief - 25th feb 2026

IT bounced 1.57% but VIX just hit 13.49 — is the market pricing in calm it hasn't earned? GDP data drops Thursday. Here's what the numbers say.

Black Bear Labs Desk·25 February 2026

Nifty 50 edged up 0.23% to 25,482 on Wednesday — but this wasn't a conviction rally. It was rotation. Auto gained 1.85%, IT bounced 1.57% after weeks of AI-driven selling, and India VIX dropped nearly 5% to 13.49, its lowest in recent memory. Bank Nifty was flat, FMCG slipped 0.25% as defensive positioning unwound. The calm felt borrowed.

The IT rebound is the story worth watching. The Nifty IT index had shed 20% through February as fears mounted that AI tools — specifically Anthropic's Claude Code — could automate contract review, code testing, and COBOL modernisation at scale, core services Indian IT has billed hundreds of billions on. Today's relief came after Anthropic signalled that Claude integrates with rather than displaces existing systems. TCS CEO Krithivasan added texture at Nasscom — he noted junior associates are outpacing senior management on generative AI adoption and issued a blunt directive: build, don't just read. Concord Biotech led all gainers at +17%, while Waaree Energies cratered 10.5% on the other end.

The macro picture is harder to ignore than a 13.49 VIX suggests. GDP data drops on the 27th — consensus expects growth to moderate to 7.4% in Q3 from 8.2%, dragged by a capex slowdown and tight credit-deposit ratios. The rupee is pinned at 90.95, with state-run banks capping moves above that level and FX desks eyeing a drift toward 91.20–91.50. Gold is holding above $5,000 on tariff uncertainty. This is a market pricing in calm it may not have earned — what breaks the range first?

marketsmarket brief