India Oil & Gas Trade
Oil & Gas sits at the very heart of India's trade imbalance. India imports approximately 85% of its crude oil needs — making it the world's third-largest crude importer after China and the USA. The import bill fluctuates significantly with global crude prices: a $10/barrel move in Brent crude changes India's annual import bill by roughly $12-15 billion.
On the export side, India is a net exporter of refined petroleum products. India's refining capacity — led by Reliance Industries' Jamnagar complex (the world's largest single-location refinery) and state-run BPCL, HPCL, and IOC — allows India to import crude, refine it, and export petrol, diesel, aviation turbine fuel, and naphtha at a profit. This makes refined petroleum products India's largest export category by value.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 fundamentally changed India's crude sourcing. India dramatically increased purchases of discounted Russian crude — at times becoming Russia's largest customer — reducing its average crude acquisition cost below market rates. This shift squeezed traditional Gulf suppliers' share while boosting Indian refiner margins.
| Year | Exports | YoY | Imports | YoY | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025-26 | $26.4B | -60.6% | $90.9B | -58.4% | $64.5B |
| FY 2024-25 | $67.0B | -23.5% | $218.5B | -0.3% | $151.4B |
| FY 2023-24 | $87.6B | -13.5% | $219.1B | -16.1% | $131.5B |
| FY 2022-23 | $101.2B | +45.5% | $260.9B | +33.9% | $159.7B |
| FY 2021-22 | $69.6B | +158.6% | $194.9B | +95.4% | $125.3B |
- →India imports ~85% of crude oil; import bill is ~$130-220B annually depending on prices
- →Refined petroleum products are India's #1 export category (HS27)
- →Reliance Jamnagar is the world's largest refinery complex
- →Russia emerged as India's top crude supplier post-2022 (at discounted prices)
- →Every $10/bbl move in Brent crude changes India's CAD by ~$12-15B
High crude prices squeeze India's current account deficit (CAD) and weaken the rupee — negative for import-heavy sectors, positive for oil-linked exporters. RELIANCE benefits from high refining margins. IOC, BPCL, HPCL face under-recovery risk when fuel prices are capped by the government. ONGC and OIL INDIA benefit directly from higher crude prices.