HDFCLIFENSEQ1 FY2023July 26, 2022

HDFC Life Insurance Company Limited

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20analyst exchanges

0executives

Key numbers — 40 extracted

22%

rting with the business update: We continue to maintain a consistent growth trajectory growing by 22% in terms of total APE in Q1 FY2023. This has enabled us to maintain our market leadership as top

35%

across individual and group businesses. Our product mix remains balanced with non-par savings at 35%, participating products at 30%, ULIPs at 25%, individual protection at 5%, and annuity at 6% base

30%

sinesses. Our product mix remains balanced with non-par savings at 35%, participating products at 30%, ULIPs at 25%, individual protection at 5%, and annuity at 6% based on individual APE. On a total

25%

product mix remains balanced with non-par savings at 35%, participating products at 30%, ULIPs at 25%, individual protection at 5%, and annuity at 6% based on individual APE. On a total APE basis our

h non-par savings at 35%, participating products at 30%, ULIPs at 25%, individual protection at 5%, and annuity at 6% based on individual APE. On a total APE basis our non-par savings segment has

at 35%, participating products at 30%, ULIPs at 25%, individual protection at 5%, and annuity at 6% based on individual APE. On a total APE basis our non-par savings segment has grown by 29%, prote

29%

uity at 6% based on individual APE. On a total APE basis our non-par savings segment has grown by 29%, protection by 31%, annuities by 39%, par by 23%, and unit linked by 10%. Within the non-par segm

31%

individual APE. On a total APE basis our non-par savings segment has grown by 29%, protection by 31%, annuities by 39%, par by 23%, and unit linked by 10%. Within the non-par segment our shorter ten

39%

n a total APE basis our non-par savings segment has grown by 29%, protection by 31%, annuities by 39%, par by 23%, and unit linked by 10%. Within the non-par segment our shorter tenure product Sancha

23%

E basis our non-par savings segment has grown by 29%, protection by 31%, annuities by 39%, par by 23%, and unit linked by 10%. Within the non-par segment our shorter tenure product Sanchay FMP cont

10%

ngs segment has grown by 29%, protection by 31%, annuities by 39%, par by 23%, and unit linked by 10%. Within the non-par segment our shorter tenure product Sanchay FMP continued to grow well and now

96%

risk-based approach to underwriting. Our credit protect business has registered strong growth of 96% on the back of rise in disbursements across most of our partners. We continue to look at overall

Guidance — 20 items

Starting with the business update

opening

“However, we see this as a temporary phenomenon and with resolution of the ongoing global conflict and consequent easing of macroeconomic stress; we expect to see traction in the second half of this year.”

Moving onto key operating and financial metrics

opening

“We expect the latter to reverse as macroeconomic volatility subsides.”

Next on channel performance

opening

“With these tech enabled initiatives coupled with capability building programs we aim to build a robust, agile, and empowered proprietary distribution.”

Now for an update on our subsidiaries

opening

“Subsequent to receipt of the NOCs from various regulatory authorities we can expect to receive the final NCLT approval.”

Now for an update on our subsidiaries

opening

“We expect to receive the final nod from IRDAI and to be able to merge the subsidiary in the second half of FY2023.”

Srinivasan P

“So for the quarter, you will expect a positive 2% for one quarter as against that we actually seen equity fall.”

Hitesh Gulati

“Should we expect this kind of a rate for the full year as well because last year’s rate was about 8.6%?”

Srinivasan P

“We basically set the unwind rate at the start of the fiscal year and we keep it flat throughout the fiscal year, so next time change will be in the next fiscal year.”

Niraj S

“So any change from this will be reflected in the investment variance through the rest of the year till we reset this rate at the beginning of next year.”

Adarsh

“Just wanted to understand the tightening of norms have been there for about six months, so looks a little awkward and just want to understand from a little more medium-term perspective.”

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Risks & concerns — 15 flagged

However, we see this as a temporary phenomenon and with resolution of the ongoing global conflict and consequent easing of macroeconomic stress; we expect to see traction in the second half of this year.

— Starting with the business update

We continue to steadily improve our individual protection policy conversion ratios and will adhere to a risk-based approach to underwriting.

— Starting with the business update

We continue to look at overall protection growth across individual and group platforms in an agnostic manner since we assess risk as well as service members covered under the group platform at an individual level.

— Starting with the business update

Innovative solutions such as enabling cardiac risk assessment at the customer’s residence for medical underwritings furthers our motive of simplifying customer journey and provide best in class service.

— Moving onto tech and innovation

So that is why you have in the walk you will see, the expense impact having a 0.6% drag on the margins.

— Vibha Padalkar

I just wanted to check on the operating assumption change in the VNB walk that we have shown and also what is our view on unwind rates this year given that risk free rates are generally expected to be higher?

— Hitesh Gulati

Another aspect is that if you look at IRDA or respective company’s annual report and if you see each company and how they are retaining risk on their balance sheet, you will find that some of the smaller companies have shown a fairly steep rise in what they are retaining on their balance sheet.

— Vibha Padalkar

Now, we have always maintained that this has to be somewhat calibrated and we will triangulate between topline, whether it is a retail protection or anything else, topline as well as bottomline, risk management, persistency and it will grow steadily.

— Vibha Padalkar

The overall demand in the market for protection, the surge has also come down a little bit for the industry, Secondly, from a risk perspective we are also looking at conversion ratios that is improving.

— Suresh Badami

We have always maintained that retail protection will grow over a period of time in India and this is something that we will have to be comfortable with, so that we continue to balance growth with profitability and risk management.

— Niraj Shah

It is always difficult to exactly pinpoint, but my hunch would be that it is more to do with the inflationary aspects rather than the process per se.

— Vibha Padalkar

So that is 50:50 or 30:70, it is difficult to know, but the new aspect certainly is inflation.

— Vibha Padalkar

Also coming back to the earlier discussion in terms of the impact of higher interest rates on both savings and spends, ROP is seen as a hybrid in terms of buying protection but yes if nothing happens then money comes back.

— Niraj Shah

Now in terms of looking at raising equity, we might look at it depending on whether there are growth opportunities or we perceive prolonged stress in the system so that we feel little bit more comfortable with strengthening our solvency, we might do that.

— Vibha Padalkar

Two things have happened since then, Exide Life transaction yes and also the environment has become a lot more volatile compared to where we were talking about this maybe a couple of years back.

— Niraj Shah

Q&A — 20 exchanges

Hi! Good afternoon. Two questions, firstly on the margins, protection retail premium continues to appear to be struggling yet overall protection mix has improved. Even non-par has increased, all in all our ULIP has gone down and also with improving scale we could have expected a better margin expansion. But, it seems that the operating leverage is actually somehow missing and margin improvement as compared to product mix looks a bit I would say on the disappointing side. So, that is question number one and second on your EV walk, the economic variance if I look at your interest rate to EV sens

Vibha Padalkar

I will take the first question and maybe the second one I will pass it on to Srini. The first one you are right, however just keep in mind that our margins are mark-to-market in terms of cost. So, whatever we incur here and now, there is no straight lining of that and sequentially you should see the throughput of fixed costs coming through as you know every quarter is sequentially higher ending up. Typically Q4 is the highest, so you will see that coming through. Some of it is back to business on COVID receding and so on so a lot of activity, travel, investments that perhaps were somewhat on t

Thank you for giving me the opportunity. I just wanted to check on the operating assumption change in the VNB walk that we have shown and also what is our view on unwind rates this year given that risk free rates are generally expected to be higher?

Vibha Padalkar

On the first question, we are fairly pleased that right from inception from when we started disclosing our embedded value and the walk, our operating assumptions have been positive and we continue to do that. Excluding the COVID impact that we have seen, barring that, it has been positive and we continue to show that. Sorry Madam, if I can just interrupt on the VNB margin also there is some change on operating assumption. Can you talk about that also? These are change in assumption versus the assumptions that we put in last year, in the month of March typically that we put in has come through,

My question is relating to protection. Within term life, both you and your peer group have seen a 30%, 40% drop. Just wanted to understand the tightening of norms have been there for about six months, so looks a little awkward and just want to understand from a little more medium-term perspective. Do you all see this some of the tightening in underwriting and norms to really affect the population set atleast over the next 2-3 years as to how much protection could have been underwritten earlier versus what you can do now?

Vibha Padalkar

I will give you a background to this. Our industry was hardly writing any term business just before the pandemic. Maybe couple of years before the pandemic, overall typically it was 1% or 2% in individual APE terms. I am leaving out credit life and then suddenly to expect that to ratchet up for the sector, we just need to put it into context. Yes, there was an uptick that we saw during the pandemic and we dont want to lose that and we have been a believer in this story. However, again it has been a continued perfect storm, there was COVID that happened, then the reinsurers like you mentioned,

Thank you for the opportunity. If you look at the credit protect business in the current quarter of around 250-260 crores. It is back to pre-pandemic levels on a lower base but almost a doubling of the business has happened. Just wanted to understand the sustenance of this particular business in the immediate quarters Q2, Q3, Q4 because we have got to the run rate of 200 to 230 kind of number even in second quarter, third quarter, and fourth quarter of last year. Do you think that this growth will moderate going ahead once the low base effect is over?

Suresh B

From what we have seen across most of our partners and we have a fair spread across banks, NBFCs, small finance banks, who we work with in this space, the growth has really come in from the loan disbursements year-on-year growth that they have seen which range anywhere between 70% to 90%. Some of the larger players have, have grown fairly fast. Now at our end, we look at higher value penetration, we look at rider attachment, we look at a little bit of a price increase. So, that has led to a faster growth for us even above the loan disbursement which is happening for our partner. So I would ass

Thank you for the opportunity and good afternoon everyone. The first question on solvency margins, 176 went to 178%, you did some sub debt raise during the quarter as well. So are we now full up in terms of capacity to do any more incremental sub debt. I think Vibha you made comment that you could look at equity as well. So just want to understand what is the comfort level on where solvency is? Let us assume it is at this level, how many years of growth can we do without having to raise equity if you can help us understand some of the dynamics around solvency?

Vibha Padalkar

So the straightforward answer is that today our growth is not getting impacted, in terms of retail growth, because of the solvency. Our stated objective has been around 180, we have been in the 180% to 190% range, sometimes been about 200 but anywhere between 180 to 200 or thereabouts, so slightly shy because of the Exide Life merger. Now in terms of looking at raising equity, we might look at it depending on whether there are growth opportunities or we perceive prolonged stress in the system so that we feel little bit more comfortable with strengthening our solvency, we might do that. It shou

Hi! Question on the EV walk on the investment variance could you just maybe help us understand on how much of the hit was due to interest rate and how much of it was due to equity market, just if you could break that up? Thanks.

Srinivasan P

Equity is around 400 odd crores and the balance is from interest rates out of the total 1200 crores. Because I was just looking at the sensitivity that you had published in FY2022 which called for a roughly 2% hit on EV for a 1% move in interest rate. So interest rate movement has been slightly lower than that if I am just looking at year end or average maybe 80, 90 bps and then the sensitivity to EV seems to be a little higher than that. Please help us understand that. The shorter end of the curve has actually gone up by 130 basis points during the quarter, it is more than 100 basis points. S

Just one question from my end. Recently, the regulators came out with risk-based capital adequacy norms and the idea of the regulator is to increase penetration. So they have set growth targets, how does this change the dynamics for the industry and for us if you could comment on that?

Vibha Padalkar

We are still awaiting in terms of some clarity on RBC and we are hopeful that they take into account some of the asks of the industry. Eight committees have been formed and at least in couple of committees this has been an ask. Yes, they have rolled out targets to insurers and we appreciate that the regulator is equally focused on developing as much as it is on regulating, so that is welcome. But having said that, I think I am sure all the life insurers would, whether the regulator is directing them to focus on topline or not, they would anyway want to solve for low penetrations and so on, so

Hi! Thanks for the opportunity. One question around the competitive intensity how do you see it in the non-par savings business and with the recent increase in product IRRs how do you see the margins trending in this line of business?

Vibha Padalkar

I will answer the end of your question on margin. Given our upward trajectory, continued smooth upward curve on margin quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, doubling in four years in terms of VNB all of that, that will continue to happen no change in that. Yes, there will be some quarter here and there. What we do find, is more in case of mid-tier apart from the listed players a lot of competitive intensity, but again there is very little disclosure, next to none, on any of their metrics. So that is expected I guess and if we extend the horizon a little bit, things do tend to normalize and that

Hi! Good afternoon and thanks for the opportunity. Just one followup on the previous question. So the current regulations says that maybe if you were to imply HDFC’s shareholding as HDFC Bank’s shareholding in the life insurance company, then they are at 47 and the regulator basically says that either you will be at 30 or you will be at 50. So there have been some instances where there has been some confusion around this so just to reconfirm what we are saying is going from 47.5 to 50 that does not require any kind of regulatory approval in the current scheme of things?

Vibha Padalkar

No, I want to make it clear here that extent regulatory guideline this is when HDFC Ergo bought Apollo Munich that is when HDFC was asked to bring down the stake to 50%. We would have stayed there had it not been for the Exide Life merger; so that still holds and this capital we are looking for is within what already holds. Is there any timeline to those fundraise? No, we have not said that there is going to be a fund raise. All we are saying is that, we will evaluate all options in front of us and also whether we need to have more but given the extended volatility it is something that we migh

Thank you. I had two questions. One is on the EV, I heard Srini say impact of 700 crores on the shareholder and the excess of VIF assets. I would guess the change of long-term interest rates and the size of our book would not that be much higher impact on the debt portfolio. That is point one, and point two if my interest rates rise, ideally I am able to invest at a higher rate whilst my savings rate or offered rate is similar would not my VNB margin increase? Thank you.

Srinivasan P

So this is on the back book, VNB will increase for the new policies that will be written at a higher interest rate, you are right. Also, bear in mind that we hedge, as and when we write any new policies, we immediately hedge the book as well. So what we are actually exposed to, when interest rates rise, is to the extent of the shareholders assets where there is no corresponding liability and also the excess assets on the non-par book as well. So those are the ones that are sensitive to the interest rates going up and like we explained earlier the shorter end of the curve where these shareholde

Hi! Thank you for the opportunity. I am just looking at margins on a year-on-year basis which is essentially 1Q to 1Q and trying to understand if there were any changes at the product level margin. I do understand that I think there were some higher expenses because of travel and new investments, etc., kicking in, but at a product level have you seen any pressure on margins given the fact that probably the cost of hedges would have gone up or maybe even on the protection side you would have seen the insurance rates going up?

Niraj Shah

If you look at the Q-on-Q product mix, you will find that the changes are fairly small. You will find that unit linked has come down marginally, par is at a similar level, term has gone down Q1 to Q1. We have discussed that on the non-par side, it has gone up but the profile of the non-par products have changed, we have discussed, we have Sanchay FMP which is a significant part of this business, annuities have gone up. So there are a fair number of compensating effects in terms of what is happening in the product mix itself. Product level margins may not have moved too much There could be inst

Thanks for the opportunity. Two questions, first is with this inflationary expectation going up and interest rates going up how do we see the growth for non-par savings business for us through the year. That is the first question and secondly how do we think about the sustainable operating RoEV for business. I think it has declined from 18% to 16.5%. Is 16%, 17% the new normal or we expect to go back to 18%, 19% in future?

Vibha Padalkar

I will answer the first one and then hand it over to Niraj. The first one we continue to see very robust demand for non-par and that will continue. We are even versus bank fixed deposits, even on the shorter end, with Sanchay FMP, we are at least 100 to 130 basis points more attractive. This is at the highest marginal tax bracket, and even at lower tax brackets, we come out meaningfully more attractive than just parking it in fixed deposits, I think that is well understood. Apart from that the longer tenure non-par also, the category has been born. Now, we have launched this about four years a

Hi! Good evening. Just few questions from my side. First is you have highlighted that on the new banca channels have demonstrated strong growth if you can just quantify something on that what is the mix or what has been the Y-o-Y growth. Second is if you can qualitatively mention your counter share or how it varies between HDFC Bank branches with vintage of less than five years and vintage more than five years more qualitatively. And third I think one point we have discussed on the non-par side we have seen IRR of the Sanchay Plus product increasing significantly during the quarter so does tha

Vibha Padalkar

I will answer the last one on the spreads, margins have not been impacted any significantly so yes more or less the spreads have been stable. It is not just a spread business, there is expenses in there as well, how we underwrite, so all of that goes in. So into that melting pot we have been able to hold our margins on non-par. Your first question was on term growth across the channels or also on overall growth across the channels? Overall growth across the non-HDFC Bank channels and also what is the mix today on the overall of this non-HDFC Bank channels in your overall mix? We have seen fair

Thank you for the opportunity. Just one question. This change in assumptions of mortality strengthening, is this across the protection book or specific to any segments like CP or individual?

Srinivasan P

It is both. After this change are we provided for FY2023 or this will be an evolving situation? We do not provide anything. Just like I said we set the assumptions at the start of the year so that goes through. So next revision, if at all, depending on experience would be in the next February or March of next year 2023. Great. Thank you Sir.

Thanks. Most of the questions have been answered just one quick thing. You mentioned about decline in the term protection business on the online channel. Is that trend similar between your own online website versus web aggregators because it seems like the largest aggregator is still doing reasonably well?

Suresh Badami

They are along similar lines. I think look for us we needed to ensure that there is clarity on our pricing between our own sourcing as well as what we have on the largest aggregator. There is a little bit of a price differential which you can see on the web aggregator level which is one of the reasons we have like Vibha had mentioned earlier any kind of pricing which we have on any particular platform is what we would like to maintain across all our partners and all our channels. So the trending is similar and we also tried to ensure that we have the right product mix even with the large aggre

Thanks. Sir just one relating to the GTI business if you could just comment around sort of prospects there and profitability around that business? Thanks.

Srinivasan P

GTI is now coming to some sort of normalcy now more recently. We believe that the pricing is more reasonable now, so therefore, we have also seen some uptick in our business and we believe that at these prices it will make some money for us. It will be fairly relatively tactical kind of a business because it is bid out every year right, so it really depends on how the pricing kind of works for the risks that we take and that is how we look at this business. Got it thanks.

If I were to look at individual protection and compare it to 1Q FY2020 the absolute amount is the same but there is a pricing element sitting over here plus this quarter you had ROP which was not there in 1Q FY2020. So adjusted for that, on volume terms, the de-growth seems substantial to the extent of 30% to 40%. Is this only consumer discretionary the reason for it or is there something more to this?

Srinivasan P

There is also tightening of the underwriting norms right so when you look at FY2020 we are talking about a couple of years ago and in the last two years you have seen there is a lot of stringency in the underwriting norms so that is also sort of contributing to the drop. I think somebody was asking also there is a cut off right with higher pricing the size of opportunity has reduced right, is that a fair understanding for protection? It is either that or people are saying that I will reduce the sum assured so either they reduce the premium or they reduce the sum assured these are the two lever

Quickly one thing on retail protection is that again in terms of the volume fall entirely led by the subdued demand and if you can quantify that how much subdued demand is contributing and how much of it is because of your acceptance rate from proposal stage had gone down that is all and second if you are already able to launch this combination product HDFC ERGO, if at all regulatory allow you to distribute a health product what does it change really?

Vibha Padalkar

I will take the second question and then Suresh can answer the first one. We have been at the forefront of nudging the regulator to allow us to sell and this is something that we have been selling in the past until about 2015. What this will do is, it will depend on what form or shape we are allowed to, the ideal would be right from manufacturing to distribution we can do both. Otherwise it will just be distribution which is what we have given and what we were allowed to recommend so distribution is an ask that is there in the report that has been submitted. So first is that it will depend on

Thank you for taking my question. You mentioned that the shorter end of the yield curve has risen more than the longer end of the yield curve which implies the yield curve is flattening a little bit. So the question is if this trend continues and if we go back to a yield curve which was probably prevailing two or three years back which was very much more flatter than what we are right now, how would you see that to impact the supply of FRAs and then would it be that easy to sort of construct the non-par products that the market seems to be doing now, your comments on this would be helpful?

Niraj Shah

We do not expect the shape of the curve to change the supply of FRAs. More and more banks are coming into this. The banks are increasing their capacity and more banks, domestic and foreign, are coming into this so we do not expect the supply of FRAs to get impacted by the slope of the curve. What can change is in terms of the economics, in terms of what happens to the spread, that gets dictated by the difference between the spot and the OIS yields and that is something that can change from time-to-time but ultimately from our perspective, it is about managing the spread. We were doing non-par

We would like to thank all of you for participating in today’s results call. Good evening.

Management

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Speaking time

Vibha Padalkar

Moderator

Srinivasan P

Niraj Shah

Suresh Badami

Akshen

Avinash Singh

Nitin Aggarwal

Shyam Srinivasan

Dipanjan Ghosh

Opening remarks

Vibha Padalkar

Thank you Faizan. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us for the discussion on our results for the quarter ended June 30, 2022. Our results including the investor presentation, press release, and regulatory disclosures are already available on our website as well as that of the stock exchanges. I have with me Suresh Badami, Executive Director; Niraj Shah, CFO; Srinivasan Parthasarathy, Chief Actuary; Eshwari Murugan, our Appointed Actuary and Kunal Jain, from Investor Relations. I will take you through the key highlights of our Q1 FY2023 results and would be happy to take questions post that.

Starting with the business update

We continue to maintain a consistent growth trajectory growing by 22% in terms of total APE in Q1 FY2023. This has enabled us to maintain our market leadership as top three life insurer across individual and group businesses. Our product mix remains balanced with non-par savings at 35%, participating products at 30%, ULIPs at 25%, individual protection at 5%, and annuity at 6% based on individual APE. On a total APE basis our non-par savings segment has grown by 29%, protection by 31%, annuities by 39%, par by 23%, and unit linked by 10%. Within the non-par segment our shorter tenure product Sanchay FMP continued to grow well and now contributes almost a fourth of our non-par individual APE. The prevailing high interest rate scenario augurs well for demand across our traditional savings products. While elevated inflation has not materially impacted savings products, premium flow into retail protection has remained tepid for the quarter possibly due to postponement of expenditure on acc

Moving onto key operating and financial metrics

Renewal premiums have grown by 19% supported by improving persistency. Our 13th and 61st month persistency for limited and regular pay policies is at 88% and 54% respectively, which is an expansion of 2 and 3 percentage points, respectively. New business margin for Q1 was 26.8% up from 26.2% in Q1 of the previous year on the back of profitable product mix and growth in protection business. The value of new business has consequently grown by 25% and is at Rs.510 Crores for the quarter. Over the past several years we have seen a distinct seasonality in quarter-on-quarter new business volumes and therefore a steady uptick in new business margins. We expect this trend to continue. Our standalone embedded value as on June 30, 2022, was 29,709 Crores with an operating return on embedded value of 16.5% in Q1 FY2023. The drop in embedded value since March end is primarily on account of dividend payout and anticipated adverse economic variances caused by interest rate movements and fall in equi

Next on channel performance

Our bancassurance channel grew by 18% in Q1 FY2023 based on individual APE. Within bancassurance while HDFC Bank continues to grow steadily, we are seeing strong growth momentum across our newer relationship such as Yes Bank, Bandhan Bank, IDFC Bank amongst others. Agency channel grew by 26% based on individual APE. We added about 9500 agents in Q1 and continue to focus on improving activation and productivity across our base of financial consultants. We are also taking multiple initiatives to augment our direct channels including geo-based lead management for increasing efficiency, AI based incentivization for promoting productivity and cloud telephony for simplified sales process. With these tech enabled initiatives coupled with capability building programs we aim to build a robust, agile, and empowered proprietary distribution.

Moving onto tech and innovation

Post the successful implementation of the initial rollout of our in-house automated underwriting engine we continue to expand its scope across a larger range of businesses. Tools such as MediEasy enable customers to schedule real-time video medicals and get assistance for financial underwriting. Innovative solutions such as enabling cardiac risk assessment at the customer’s residence for medical underwritings furthers our motive of simplifying customer journey and provide best in class service.

Now for an update on our subsidiaries

Subsidiary #1: we are delighted to share that our pension subsidiary HDFC Pension crossed the 30000 Crores AUM mark and has almost doubled its AUM in just 15 months. As on June 30, 2022, HDFC Pension had a market share of 38% maintaining its leadership position in the private pension fund manager space in terms of NPS AUM. Subsidiary #2: HDFC International, our overseas subsidiary has received an in-principle approval from International Financial Services Centres Authority - IFSCA to set up a global in-house centre at GIFT city. This entity will pool and optimize all processing activities of our international business. This is an important step for us towards eventually setting up an IFSC insurance office IIO at GIFT city which can cater to the overseas insurance needs of the Indian Diaspora. Subsidiary #3: Exide Life witnessed strong growth of 34% based on individual WRP in Q1 FY2023 and continues to enjoy a healthy product mix and growth across channels. The integration of Exide Life

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