GODREJCPNSESeptember 30, 2022

Godrej Consumer Products Limited

7,768words
72turns
7analyst exchanges
4executives
Management on call
Aniket Sethi
ICICI SECURITIES
Dharnesh Gordhon
CLUSTER HEAD – GAUM – GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LIMITED
Sameer Shah
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER - GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LIMITED
Pratik Dantara
ASSOCIATE VICE
Key numbers — 16 extracted
rs,
ve us some sense on how do you see EBITDA margins over the next two, three years or four, five years, last time you had said 17% to 18% but I believe things have changed from there on so any guidance
17%
you see EBITDA margins over the next two, three years or four, five years, last time you had said 17% to 18% but I believe things have changed from there on so any guidance over there? Dharnesh Gor
18%
EBITDA margins over the next two, three years or four, five years, last time you had said 17% to 18% but I believe things have changed from there on so any guidance over there? Dharnesh Gordhon:
20%
I will let my colleague present some of that input to you. Pratik Dantara: Broadly US is about 20%- 25% of our business and within the whole GAUM cluster the West Cluster which comprises of Nigeri
25%
ll let my colleague present some of that input to you. Pratik Dantara: Broadly US is about 20%- 25% of our business and within the whole GAUM cluster the West Cluster which comprises of Nigeria and
30%
ithin the whole GAUM cluster the West Cluster which comprises of Nigeria and Ghana would be about 30%- 35% followed by South Africa which should be in the range of about 25%- 30% and the rest of it w
35%
the whole GAUM cluster the West Cluster which comprises of Nigeria and Ghana would be about 30%- 35% followed by South Africa which should be in the range of about 25%- 30% and the rest of it will
55%
marily Kenya, but some of the other smaller markets as well and from a category perspective about 55% should be dry hair and the balance should be FMCG and within that wet hair is a big part. . Per
45%
lude US right? Pratik Dantara: Right. Percy Panthaki: So basically within Africa it is 55%, 45% split between dry hair and FMCG? Pratik Dantara: No, GAUM as a whole has 55% dry hair and 45% F
40%
ll you had highlighted that the numeric distribution that you aim to achieve in Nigeria was about 40% and about 85% to 90% in South Africa where are you in that journey currently that is my first que
85%
hlighted that the numeric distribution that you aim to achieve in Nigeria was about 40% and about 85% to 90% in South Africa where are you in that journey currently that is my first question? Dharn
90%
d that the numeric distribution that you aim to achieve in Nigeria was about 40% and about 85% to 90% in South Africa where are you in that journey currently that is my first question? Dharnesh Gor
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Guidance — 12 items
Avi Mehta
qa
Would that be fair or would you kind of be able to give us some guidance?
Avi Mehta
qa
The second bit was essentially on the margin kind of commentary and would you be able to give us some sense on how do you see EBITDA margins over the next two, three years or four, five years, last time you had said 17% to 18% but I believe things have changed from there on so any guidance over there?
Pratik Dantara
qa
US is primarily wet hair so it will be a part of the 45%.
Percy Panthaki
qa
Can you tell me how these categories have performed, has dry hair grown faster, has wet hair grown faster over the last three years and rough growth rates if you can give me over a CAGR basis?
Mihir Shah
qa
I just wanted to check if you can talk a bit about the progress of building retail infrastructure in Nigeria specifically I recall you had highlighted that the numeric distribution that you aim to achieve in Nigeria was about 40% and about 85% to 90% in South Africa where are you in that journey currently that is my first question?
Dharnesh Gordhon
qa
If I can take Nigeria in 2020 we were reaching directly about 10,000 stores, today we are about 80,000 stores, and by mid next year we have a plan to get to 120,000 stores.
Mihir Shah
qa
Understood fantastic to hear that and I think there is a long way to go if you are only just doing 25% in the next year, so sustainable growth mid-teens can be granted right, it should be taken for granted that mid-teens growth is not going anywhere at least in the near future on an overall basis?
Mihir Shah
qa
Secondly if you can talk a bit about earlier you had highlighted that you were implementing a centralized category management structure and that is also a very integral part of your core sustainable growth so how is it and as I recall that you were also highlighting that you are getting good talent now versus what Godrej Africa was earlier, so how is that really shaping up where are we in that journey, could you give some insights it will be very helpful?
Mihir Shah
qa
Given that you were anyway having a structure and you are trying to normalize the SKU and reduce the complexity I am not entirely sure if this my next question will be fair but I just want to understand how are you looking at the cross pollination opportunity you already have an existing portfolio and I recollect last year when we spoke to you, you had just launched Mr.
Dharnesh Gordhon
qa
If in my ideal dream world I had the currency where it was two years ago in most of my key markets today we will be celebrating 600, 700 basis points improvement of margin and I think this is a challenge.
Risks & concerns — 3 flagged
The challenge is again this issue of while some of the markets have to fix the complexity issue, I do not want ~ I CONSUMER PRODUCTS to throw new things at them to be honest because you need the muscle power, you need the brain power to drive the execution, but Nigeria so West Africa, Middle East we already for example number two player in the UAE already which is small market but it tells us what we can do and the fact that we have products that are winning proper consumer propositions.
Dharnesh Gordhon
If in my ideal dream world I had the currency where it was two years ago in most of my key markets today we will be celebrating 600, 700 basis points improvement of margin and I think this is a challenge.
Dharnesh Gordhon
So what isnt within our control in input costs, what is within our control is controllable cost , driving efficiencies, driving a better mix because actually on a like-for-like basis we have a far more profitable mix today; however, when you are buying something that is like raw material that are dollar based when you are having a currency devaluing 25% - 30% you can imagine the challenge, but look I also understand that is how business is.
Dharnesh Gordhon
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Q&A — 7 exchanges
Q
Hi Dharnesh, it is a pleasure speaking with you again after a gap of almost a year. Dharnesh I just wanted to kind of take the strings back from there and pick it up from there, you had highlighted them that effective distribution was one of the most important lever that you had identified for driving growth, now since then obviously we have seen very strong constant currency growth span out, but competition has also normalized and I would assume that the easy gains from that investment are largely behind us, could you give us a sense on how do you see growth kind of trending as we move forwar
Dharnesh Gordhon
Firstly, I think the view that competitive intensity has changed, I am not sure. I think what happened over time is the big players got stronger across the key geographies and for example we believe that driving availability of product, driving numeric distribution has definitely given us gains in the early days, but it is something we continue to sustain, so we have got more than two-and-a-half times the numeric distribution or outlet coverage that we had in the early days of 2020. So I think we are building a far more robust ecosystem of sales which goes back to availability of our product p
Q
Hi! Good afternoon. Before I can squeeze my question looking for some basic sales breakup of the GAUM business. Firstly, what percentage is US, secondly ex-US what is the split between the main segments which is your dry hair care, wet hair care and others and also if you can give some idea as to over the last two or three years which segment has grown faster and how this mix has changed that would be very helpful? Thank you.
Dharnesh Gordhon
Sure, if you do not mind I will let my colleague present some of that input to you. Broadly US is about 20%- 25% of our business and within the whole GAUM cluster the West Cluster which comprises of Nigeria and Ghana would be about 30%- 35% followed by South Africa which should be in the range of about 25%- 30% and the rest of it will comprise of primarily Kenya, but some of the other smaller markets as well and from a category perspective about 55% should be dry hair and the balance should be FMCG and within that wet hair is a big part. . This 55% dry hair the denominator here is only Africa
Q
My first question was that a few quarters back I think Sudhir in one of the presentations he made highlighted one of the key issues as complexity Could you kind of talk about what level of complexity reduction are you looking at and as you do that could there be some negative impact on growth because we will probably be looking at sales and some markets maybe moving into a different model so what does it mean for growth as well as profitability?
Dharnesh Gordhon
I think this issue about complexity and when you look at the portfolio that we have that we had over time across the different markets what does complexity brings you. I think we were trying to do many things, rightfully, wrongfully, but we are trying to figure out what and where are the areas that we could really expand, what are the opportunities, so when I look at portfolio complexity, SKU complexity, all of these things and just think about simply what is it that we have. Most companies across and I just used Africa in my previous experience most successful organizations have three or four
Q
I just wanted to check if you can talk a bit about the progress of building retail infrastructure in Nigeria specifically I recall you had highlighted that the numeric distribution that you aim to achieve in Nigeria was about 40% and about 85% to 90% in South Africa where are you in that journey currently that is my first question?
Dharnesh Gordhon
If I can take Nigeria in 2020 we were reaching directly about 10,000 stores, today we are about 80,000 stores, and by mid next year we have a plan to get to 120,000 stores. Now the way we are doing this is one is we are expanding our what we call key distributor model and related to the key distributor model is an ecosystem which includes sales motorcycles and salon ambassadors because we also have a salon program on the hair extension which we also expand into our hair care portfolio and I would say which then drive into sub distributor model, etc., so I think that will only take us to about
Q
Hi Dharnesh thanks for the insight so far. You talked a lot about reducing SKU complexity I was just wondering if you have plans to reduce footprint or exit any of the smaller markets to reduce geographical complexity here?
Dharnesh Gordhon
Actually my answer would be no and no means I am not going to reduce geographic footprint but I am going to reduce complexity and I think the way to answer this is we do not have to be colonialists we do not have to put a flag operation in every country and I think we have done some of that not so well in the past I think the fact that our category and our products have value in a market we have to find other business models and one of the big steps we are taking right now is doing a thorough revision for example today in the DRC and I just use a simple example hypothetically we are selling x
Q
Thanks for this opportunity to interact with you again. I have two questions, one is with respect to HI Market in the GAUM Cluster just wanted to get a sense how big that category size is and what could be the larger split between aerosols and LVs and if you have a coil also over there that is my first one?
Dharnesh Gordhon
I do not know the answers to all your questions except to tell you total HI is probably about $800 million what we can establish the key market is actually South Africa by far the most developed and the most competitive and it is mainly in aerosol. LV is very new and is very upper income in if I take South Africa or even Kenya or a little bit in Nigeria. What I do think is really interesting is our play which is we have launched this thing called Goodknight Power Shots which is a very different play and it is really exciting because it really sets us a platform the regular aerosol player, it i
Q
Guys I am sorry but I think Dharnesh got logged off up and we are not able to reach him, but I think it is time to wind up. Thanks everyone for joining the call, if you have any further questions do reach out to the IR team and we will be happy to answer them. Thank you.
Management
Speaking time
Dharnesh Gordhon
21
Moderator
9
Pratik Dantara
8
Percy Panthaki
8
Mihir Shah
6
Avi Mehta
5
Arnab Mitra
4
Latika Chopra
4
Alok Shah
4
Sameer Shah
2
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Opening remarks
Aniket Sethi
Thanks Rutuja. Hi good afternoon everyone, thank you for joining in. It is our absolute pleasure to welcome you all to this call. I will just hand it over to Pratik Dantara, AVP, M&A and Investor Relations to do the introductions and take the call forward. Thank you and over to you Pratik!
Pratik Dantara
Thanks Aniket. Good afternoon everyone. We have on the call Dharnesh Gordhon - Cluster Head for GAUM, and Sameer Shah - CFO for GCPL. What we would like to do is straight away get into Q&A because we just have just an hour. We will wait for couple of minutes as people line up for the Q&A and then we can take them one-by-one.
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