The Great Eastern Shipping Company Limited
4,060words
3turns
0analyst exchanges
0executives
Key numbers — 40 extracted
rs,
INR 1853
INR 1000
INR19.80
INR 1,853
INR 7.20
INR 1,883
INR
7.20
32%
23%
14%
10%
Speaking time
1
1
1
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Opening remarks
Demand Side
• Middle East has been a big driver of incremental demand. Saudi has contracted 38 incremental JUs in 2022. Once these rigs commence contracts, the rig count tied on terms contracts with Saudi Aramco is estimated at reach 85-90 units (~20% of global fleet). • Both Saudi and UAE have aggressive plans to increase production capacity. Offshore has played an increasingly larger role in incremental production
Utilization and rates
• Modern rig utilization (contracted + future contracted) troughed at 60-65% in 2016-17. This has now moved to ~ 90% and inching towards levels seen during the super cycle 2006 to 2013. • The leading-edge rate in ME/SEA markets have moved from 60-70K USD/day in 2020 to around 110K USD/day by end of 2022. GE Shipping – Q3 & 9MFY23 Results 33 FLEET SUPPLY – INCREASING NUMBER OF COLD STACKED RIGS Number Jack-up Rigs PSV+AHTSV Current Fleet Under Contract Fleet Order Book O/B to Current Fleet Total Scrapping since Jan 2016 (Nos) No of Vessels/Rigs more than 20/30 years old (% Fleet) Cold stacked more than 3 years 493 358 20 4.1% 143 33% 45 3,472 2,199 105 3.0% 588 20% 578 • Given the length of the downturn and lack of orders, many yards have mothballed or repurposed the capacity. In the heydays of 2011-13, there were 24 yards that took 148 new building orders. In the last 6 years, only 1 yard has taken 2 new building orders • Overall, the new building capacity stands severely curtailed and
Asset Values
• Asset values for modern rigs have jumped almost 100% from the levels seen in 2020. • A 2014 built rig which got sold for $42 Mn in Oct 2020 was resold for $85 Mn in Aug 2022 Source: Industry Reports GE Shipping – Q3 & 9MFY23 Results 34 MARKET TRENDS: UTILISATION Jack Up Utilisation : Gradual Improvement Total Util % 450 400 350 300 250 200 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 Under Contract Total Util % GE Shipping – Q3 & 9MFY23 Results 35 REPRICING Remaining 2 rigs will come up for repricing in FY 26 and FY 27 Vessels Rigs 6 4 5 2 0 0 0 H 2 F Y 2 3 H 1 F Y 2 4 H 2 F Y 2 4 H 1 F Y 2 5 H 2 F Y 2 5 1 1 1 GE Shipping – Q3 & 9MFY23 Results 36 DEBT REPAYMENT SCHEDULE 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 140 Dec-22 GIL (USD Mn) 97 36 7 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25 Repayments Loan O/S (RHS) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 GE Shipping – Q3 & 9MFY23 Results 37 FINANCIALS COUNTER CYCLICAL INVESTMENTS GENERATED STRONG CASH FLOWS Net Debt Expansion Phase Net Debt Reduction Phase USD Mn 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 - -50 -100 FY201
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