ETERNAL LIMITED
6,896words
120turns
13analyst exchanges
0executives
Key numbers — 20 extracted
1 billion
tunity. I had three questions. First question is on the overall EBITDA guidance or indication of $1 billion by FY29. Now we do know that food delivery is sort of at a steady clip and it's also growing at 1
20%
y FY29. Now we do know that food delivery is sort of at a steady clip and it's also growing at 19-20%. We do know about District EBITDA guidance of FY30. If I just sort of strip it back, and we know
60%
ct EBITDA guidance of FY30. If I just sort of strip it back, and we know the NOV growth CAGR of 60% for quick commerce, then the implied margin for quick commerce comes to around, say, roughly 3-3.
3.5%
0% for quick commerce, then the implied margin for quick commerce comes to around, say, roughly 3-3.5%, give or take. Is that the number which we are expecting from a margin perspective in the next th
, MT
e dark store guidance of 3,000 by March. These are the only two questions. Akshant Goyal: Gaurav, MTU additions remain strong because we continue to spend on marketing for new customer acquisition.
100%
ollow-up. Essentially, if 3,000 stores happen, that means the general growth for FY27 will not be 100% as you had indicated earlier. It will be, say, in the 70-80%, right? Is the understanding correct
80%
general growth for FY27 will not be 100% as you had indicated earlier. It will be, say, in the 70-80%, right? Is the understanding correct? Akshant Goyal: Yes, it will not be 100%, but we are not
rs,
you mentioned. We are fairly comfortable and confident that over a period of three years, we should be able to deliver this CAGR of growth. Manish Adukia: Sure, thank you Akshant for tha
6%
ontribution direction should be upwards at least for now, right? Akshant Goyal: As we move to 5-6% margin that we are saying we will get to at some point, contribution margin will go up and on a y
9%
at, you said that in NCR, you're doing 5-6% margin which would imply that contribution there is 8-9%. Would that be the right assumption or even higher? Akshant Goyal: We are not sharing that da
3%
Ankur Rudra: Appreciate the color. Finally, in terms of profitability for Blinkit, approximately 3% is what you've said, it seems broadly fine. What are the biggest unlocks for you either in term
17 million
the opportunity. My first question is with respect to your warehousing capacity. You talked about 17 million of warehousing capacity spread across dark stores and supply chain, other hubs, etc. Can you give
Guidance — 20 items
Gaurav Malhotra
qa
“First question is on the overall EBITDA guidance or indication of $1 billion by FY29.”
Gaurav Malhotra
qa
“We do know about District EBITDA guidance of FY30.”
Gaurav Malhotra
qa
“If I just sort of strip it back, and we know the NOV growth CAGR of 60% for quick commerce, then the implied margin for quick commerce comes to around, say, roughly 3-3.5%, give or take.”
Akshant Goyal
qa
“We're not giving any specific guidance, and therefore the numbers could move a little bit depending on how things pan out.”
Gaurav Malhotra
qa
“Just wanted to get a sense on the dark store guidance of 3,000 by March.”
Akshant Goyal
qa
“On store addition, we're on track on our guidance for March of 3,000 stores.”
Akshant Goyal
qa
“We're not going to give any guidance beyond that.”
Akshant Goyal
qa
“We've given overall guidance of 60% CAGR and that would obviously mean some reasonable store expansion, but we're not planning to give out any specific number guidance on that.”
Gaurav Malhotra
qa
“Essentially, if 3,000 stores happen, that means the general growth for FY27 will not be 100% as you had indicated earlier.”
Akshant Goyal
qa
“We need that flexibility in the medium term and short term to respond to how the market dynamics are.”
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Risks & concerns — 3 flagged
From a user number perspective, given that there is a fair bit of competition and there are like a few well-capitalized players in the market and given as the market already is today, you don't see a concern in terms of MTU or user penetration reaching closer to saturation levels in the foreseeable future?
— Manish Adukia
What would be the driver for this and where would we feel comfortable, not from a working capital deployment, but just from a risk perspective, what would be comforting for us?
— Jignanshu Gor
Otherwise, do you believe there could potentially be upside risk to that NOV margin guidance that you have provided in the past?
— Rishi Jhunjhunwala
Q&A — 13 exchanges
Q
Hi, thank you for the opportunity. I had three questions. First question is on the overall EBITDA guidance or indication of $1 billion by FY29. Now we do know that food delivery is sort of at a steady clip and it's also growing at 19-20%. We do know about District EBITDA guidance of FY30. If I just sort of strip it back, and we know the NOV growth CAGR of 60% for quick commerce, then the implied margin for quick commerce comes to around, say, roughly 3-3.5%, give or take. Is that the number which we are expecting from a margin perspective in the next three to four years?
Akshant Goyal
Hi, Gaurav. Broadly the math is fine. We're not giving any specific guidance, and therefore the numbers could move a little bit depending on how things pan out. But, the way you did the math is broadly in line with how we're thinking about it. Okay, thank you. Just two more quick questions. We see that your fixed cost in quick commerce has been sort of flattish this quarter and yet the MTU numbers have been quite strong. Just wanted to get a sense as to how to reconcile these two numbers. The second question is on the dark stores. I remember you had mentioned that maybe you'll pick up the addi
Q
Thank you. Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. My first question is actually a follow-up from Gaurav's previous question. Akshant, like Gaurav asked, the 100% guidance now does not hold true for FY27, given what you saw in the market in terms of competition, etc. Now, when you give your medium term guidance of 60% CAGR, what margin of safety or room for error are you building in that guidance? If competition were to remain as is or were to get slightly worse from here, what are the range of outcomes for the 60% CAGR? The reason I'm asking is because from a near term perspect
Akshant Goyal
Hi, Manish. We've addressed that in question three of the letter. We've tried to give you the building blocks of what the 60% CAGR guidance is based upon. It's a function of assortment expansion, geographical expansion as well as more demand densification in the cities where we are present today and we might also get into newer cities. Any sort of intensifying competitive activity isn’t going to last beyond the three-year period that you mentioned. We are fairly comfortable and confident that over a period of three years, we should be able to deliver this CAGR of growth. Sure, thank you Akshan
Q
Hi, good evening. Two questions, firstly, when we look at the contribution per order in the quarter, we've seen a slight dip. Is this largely a function of AOV which obviously falls seasonally or anything more to read in the sort of drop in contribution per order? And then the second question is on the food delivery side. We've seen Swiggy sort of rollout Toing quite aggressively, which is obviously a different model with a different price structure. Any plans for Eternal to do the same or do you think of Bistro as being that option for affordability on the food delivery side? And for Bistro,
Akshant Goyal
On contribution, Aditya, multiple things change sequentially quarter-on-quarter. You mentioned AOV, that is one but we're not saying that it was a key driver. There are other things also which keep changing. Last mile delivery is also seasonal in some ways. The supply of delivery partner changes during different months in the year and some of the other things like supply chain costs, etc., there could be efficiencies that we are banking in. Net-net, the movement what you see in contribution overall doesn't change the trajectory of our business. More longer term, I don't think there's anything
Q
Hey, thank you, and thank you for the targets on growth and profitability this time. Firstly, in terms of the 60% growth guidance, and thank you for the color in terms of the building blocks, but in the more near term, are you seeing any early signs of competitive activity easing, which gives you any kind of visibility of this starting to play out from the next couple of quarters? Albinder Singh Dhindsa: Hey, Ankur. Albinder here. Competitive activity hasn't meaningfully changed from the last time we were on this call. Our stance about it is also the same that we will keep an eye out for it bu
Ankur Rudra
Super helpful. You've given a three-year guidance this time. If I look at the last two to three years, there's been a significant amount of linearity between store additions and growth. Is there anything to suggest that will change over the next three years? It's not a straightforward comparison. In some parts of the network, we're still in a store build-out phase. In some other parts, we just have to create supply in different ways to serve customers when we are expanding assortment. Our job is to make sure that the supply is there, whether it's in smaller stores or bigger stores. That number
Q
Hi. Congrats on a great set of numbers. First, on the growth in quick commerce, you seem to be still growing ahead of the market. Do you think that when you say about 60% NOV growth going ahead, are you actually happy to grow in line with the market in the future? And why is that? I have another question which is slightly backward looking. Now that you have achieved profitability rather steadily, what do you think is the most non-negotiable KPI that you have to crack in order to get to profitability in QC? Is it orders per day per store or is it your NAOV number? Albinder Singh Dhindsa: Abhish
Abhisek Banerjee
Got it. Thanks.
Q
Hi, thanks for the opportunity. My first question is with respect to your warehousing capacity. You talked about 17 million of warehousing capacity spread across dark stores and supply chain, other hubs, etc. Can you give a sense as to what the number was a quarter back or a year back? The reason I'm asking is like it will help us understand like what kind of an up-play you can get from by just utilizing the capacity or even if these additions are closed down going ahead. Thanks.
Albinder Singh Dhindsa
Swapnil, we don't disclose that. If you won't find it in our letter, it's not a miss. Got it. The other number I was tracking was your orders per day per store. That number has been broadly flat for a long period of time. Any sense as to when can we see some uplift in that number because presumably that is where you will get a decent bit of operating leverage? As Albinder mentioned, the contours of the business might keep on changing. We are not hung upon certain metrics going in a certain way for the business to work. There could be arguments that can be made for that number to not go up and
Q
Hi. Can you hear me all right?
Akshant Goyal
Yeah, Ashwin. Go ahead. Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. One question. If I look at your consolidated financials, your advertising promotion cost in absolute terms was flat sequentially. Any sense that you can give in terms of what proportion of this goes to Blinkit? And the follow-up to that is philosophically, how are you thinking in terms of reacting to competition because news flow seems to suggest that one of your competition seems to be growing much faster sequentially at least. Are you okay to let go of some market share in near term and still focus on profitability or you will possibly
Q
Hi, thank you for the opportunity. I have two questions. One is, as a large part of our growth narrative from here on depends in some sense on either growing the non-grocery assortment and going outside of the metro cities. Two questions related to these. One, is it possible to give some quantitative understanding of how some of the non-metro cities are doing in terms of size of business per store? I understand the profitability margin metric, which was in the letter, but in terms of size, either revenue or order per day, what kind of ratio can we expect in metro versus tier 1 or a tier 2 town
Albinder Singh Dhindsa
Jignanshu, we don't disclose the breakup intentionally of our business in larger cities versus emerging cities. On the second part, before we give more color, I don't think inventory days is related to, in any way, the split that we have between tier 1 and tier 2 and tier 3 cities. Jignanshu, just on that inventory bit, when you said last few quarters, we're aware that in the last few quarters, from Q2 to Q3 especially, we saw the shift to 1P and the share of 1P also increased during that time. But Q3 to Q4, there hasn't been any meaningful increase apart from the increase expected because of
Q
Hi, congratulations on good performance and profitability in quick commerce. I have two questions. My first question is about your comments around competition, which probably hasn't changed much in the last couple of months and still you expect 60%+ CAGR in the quick commerce business. Is it that you're not changing your stance and you still expect this healthy growth to continue at 60%? At what point in time, you need to kind of re-look at the stance on your certain thresholds of MOV or other things? What is the North Star metric that you focus on, whether it is MTC addition, order growth, NO
Akshant Goyal
Largely, Gaurav, we look at customer retention and the customer frequency in our own business. As long as we don't see that being impacted in a meaningful way with what everyone else is doing, then the choice to stick to the principles that Albinder mentioned is still there. Over the last few months, we haven’t seen our customers turn away from our platform too much and hence, at this point, we don't see the need to react more than what we've already done. Got it. My second question is on your top eight cities. You did give a very good data point on geographic coverage of 80-90% coverage in th
Q
Thanks for the opportunity. First question on Blinkit. How should we think about the discounting which is prevalent in the quick commerce market today and how confident you are in maintaining your pricing discipline as well as a 60% growth CAGR in the business? Albinder Singh Dhindsa: Garima, we are very confident of maintaining our pricing discipline. We're not sure what competition will do. It is very hard to estimate what is happening in the market. How much of the market is froth, how much of it is artificially inflated by discounts, it's very hard to actually tell, very hard to comment on
Garima Mishra
But you remain confident that you are already retaining that customer who you think is the more profitable customer and sort of sits well within what Blinkit stands for. Is that the right understanding? Yes. Got it. Second question was on District. You are already present in different verticals pertaining to the broad going-out category. What new categories are you looking to add within District and particularly within travel? Garima, we have no plans to add any more category to District than what we already have, and travel is not a focus area for us at this point. Got it. Last question maybe
Q
Yes, thank you. A couple of questions. Firstly, if we look at our order growth in food delivery as well as in QC, in food, order growth was 15% YoY but the active delivery partners on a monthly basis went up by 30%. In QC, the order growth was slightly above 90%, but the rider growth was 120%. While in QC, I can still understand that you're expanding rapidly and probably adding a lot more there, but in food, what explains this gap given that effectively if I calculate number of orders per rider per month, it has come down by 10% to 15% in both the businesses over the last one year? Albinder Si
Rishi Jhunjhunwala
Understood. The second question is on food delivery. We are close to that 20% mark from a growth perspective. We are at 5.5% from a margin perspective. We had taken a mid-quarter hike in platform fee, probably next quarter, it flows down completely to the bottom line. How do we think about incremental operating leverage that you would get in the business as well as some of these increase in monetization to flow through the food delivery P&L? Do you intend to utilize that incrementally in some sort to increase growth? If yes, how? Otherwise, do you believe there could potentially be upside risk
Q
Hi, thank you for the opportunity. My first question is, within that guidance of 60%+ CAGR on quick commerce, the top 20 cities that you call out, would they still be about 40% within that? Any kind of broad assessment of what that embeds for top 20 cities that you could give would be helpful. That's my first question. My second question is within QC in terms of the ad monetization. Is it mostly driven by the SKUs that you stock and that you're able to surface to the customers, or the ad loads at checkout and top of the funnel ads are also meaningful? That's the second thing I wanted to ask. T
Albinder Singh Dhindsa
Vijit, the first one, we don't give that breakup, and we won't be able to give you that color. I didn't really understand this question. Just wanted to understand the ads business, the ad monetization that you achieve. My guess would be the biggest chunk of that is the brands themselves advertising on you for stock that you actually hold on the platform but there will also be ads, that you show on checkout or ads which are more like the brand page that you have. I wanted to get a sense of what the composition of your ad revenue looks like between these two / three different kinds of categories
Q
Thank you for the opportunity and congrats on great set of numbers. First question is on competition. Just wanted to understand, is competition also intense in tier 2 and tier 3 cities? Or is it that there are few operators and hence competition is reasonably lower out there?
Albinder Singh Dhindsa
The competitive intensity is fairly high pretty much wherever everybody is. Different set of players in different markets. Someone is aggressive somewhere at this point. For us, it's competitive everywhere. Got it. In terms of dark store additions, when we think about it, is the mix still 80% urban and 20% tier 2, tier 3 or has that changed over a period of time? That's changing, Sachin. We're not giving specific guidance but increasingly, as we also mentioned in the letter, a large part of our growth will come from geographic diversification so we will see that mix change over time. Okay. Ano
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Speaking time
Akshant Goyal
38
Moderator
14
Albinder Singh Dhindsa
9
Sachin Salgaonkar
7
Swapnil Potdukhe
6
Manish Adukia
5
Aditya Soman
5
Jignanshu Gor
5
Garima Mishra
5
Gaurav Malhotra
4
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